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Fertiliser Comment, 28 August

Australian urea prices continue to trade at a premium to global prices, reflecting the current shortages.

Local prices have become less transparent in recent weeks as major importers struggle to balance their sales books against delayed shipments and high demand. On paper it looks like supply is going be very tight for Tasmania in September, with some relief in October. Spot prices for urea likely to remain elevated until mid-to-late October.

Phosphate prices continue to firm in line with strong global prices. China holds all the cards regarding short-term price direction, with their exports of DAP and MAP below market expectations. Global demand has seasonally increased and with that comes higher global prices.

DAP and MAP prices could firm considerably over the next few months given the lack of stock in Australia at present.

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