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Fertiliser Comment and Pricing

Urea Comments

  • Prices firmed up again this week in US Gulf Contract as shown in graph attached

  • Hearing supply ex Geelong tight now and multiple originators have over sold and waiting for new shipments to arrive

  • Waiting to see USDA stocks and acreage report on Friday 2am – could swing traders view on potential demand if acres planted are greater then first expected

  • Many in market anticipated corn acres at 93m acres, many are now pointing expectations lower to 87-88m (lower nitrogen demand). Tomorrow night we will have an updated acreage number to confirm beliefs.

  • European Nat Gas prices have exploded higher on fears of Russian supply cuts by 40%.

  • Azomures (Romanian Nitrogen Pd Facility) announces short term production stoppage after Nat Gas prices rallied – even though it is only a small part of production – it could be signaling more to come

  • Still no change in Chinese Urea ban or news – suppose to be in place till end of June 22 so not long left!

Phosphates Comments

  • Poor spring application has left US domestic phosphate market feeling oversupplied, surprise is higher prices have reduced farmers application rates in less then ideal planting conditions

  • Still yet to see return of Chinese Phosphate exports, keeping support strong under international market.

  • Russian product continues to find homes on Brazil & India, though logistical issues continue as the west looks to cut off Russian commerce

  • Expectations for a low acreage planted in 2022 US Corn crop (less then 89.5m ac) – numbers out Friday, mean corn acres next year should be high on rotation, boosting fertiliser demand.

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