Prices firmed up again this week in US Gulf Contract as shown in graph attached
Hearing supply ex Geelong tight now and multiple originators have over sold and waiting for new shipments to arrive
Waiting to see USDA stocks and acreage report on Friday 2am – could swing traders view on potential demand if acres planted are greater then first expected
Many in market anticipated corn acres at 93m acres, many are now pointing expectations lower to 87-88m (lower nitrogen demand). Tomorrow night we will have an updated acreage number to confirm beliefs.
European Nat Gas prices have exploded higher on fears of Russian supply cuts by 40%.
Azomures (Romanian Nitrogen Pd Facility) announces short term production stoppage after Nat Gas prices rallied – even though it is only a small part of production – it could be signaling more to come
Still no change in Chinese Urea ban or news – suppose to be in place till end of June 22 so not long left!
Poor spring application has left US domestic phosphate market feeling oversupplied, surprise is higher prices have reduced farmers application rates in less then ideal planting conditions
Still yet to see return of Chinese Phosphate exports, keeping support strong under international market.
Russian product continues to find homes on Brazil & India, though logistical issues continue as the west looks to cut off Russian commerce
Expectations for a low acreage planted in 2022 US Corn crop (less then 89.5m ac) – numbers out Friday, mean corn acres next year should be high on rotation, boosting fertiliser demand.