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Grain Comment, 1 August

Another exceptionally volatile week with global grain and oilseed futures markets trading a ten percent range.

Earlier in the week, traders panicked over the Russian airstrikes on grain port facilities in Odessa and around the Danube River systems. The damage has been minimal at the Danube facilities but there will not be any exports from Odessa in the short to medium term.

At the time of writing there have been reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russian grain facilities. If this verifies it could signal another dramatic change as the grain markets are assuming Russia will continue to export four to five million tons of grain per month.

Grain merchants will be monitoring the situation closely for any signs of a backdown or escalation. Still no climatic signs of an El Nino locally, and the majority of growing regions on the mainland seem to be in great shape.

Mainland crops need fertilizer and there have been reports of significant shortages and delays in picking up urea. Let’s hope the delays don’t cost farmers too much in terms of yield.

Tassie prices are a touch softer this week with improving weather conditions on the mainland and increased farmer selling.


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