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Grain Comment, 27 April

Recently released statistics for Tasmanian cereal imports make for interesting reading. Notably, since November 2022, grain imports have declined around 30% compared to the same period last year.

At first glance you would expect total feed grain consumption to be dramatically lower. While some decline is likely due to decreased grain consumption given the poor ‘processing’ margins for cattle feed-lotters, chicken and pork producers, and the challenging dairy industry environment, a large part of the decline can be attributed to the rapid increase in local production.

XLD Commodities estimates that Tasmanian cereal production has increased 40,000 ton over the past three seasons, reducing the states reliance on the mainland. Quality of local grain has also improved, meaning Tasmanian grain does not need to trade at a discount to its mainland competition.

Prices for local grains and oilseeds remain steady, while overseas futures markets continue to trade in a wide range, supported by bullish fundamentals and the bearish macro-economic environment.

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