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August 1, Grain Comment

By Paul Willows


Global grain markets have rallied strongly over the past week as traders have refocused their attention on the fundamentals.

Forecasts for key corn and soybean growing regions in the US have turned hot and dry. Due to this we are unlikely to achieve trend yields in the US this year.

The EU has also had a very hot summer which has negatively impacted production. Offsetting these declines is the massive wheat crop forecast for Russia; most estimates are now above 90 million tonnes - a record. Grain Merchants are trying to guess how much of the Russian crop can be exported with so many difficulties: exports taxes, export quotas, sanctions, and impossible insurance premiums given it a war zone. Politicians keep talking up exports from Ukrainian ports, however it is likely to be very limited given the damage done to the loading infrastructure.

Prices locally have firmed, tracking the global prices more closely.

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