Local urea prices have been very steady for a few weeks. Tasmanian urea prices are generally tracking mainland replacement levels, which in turn have been tracking global values.
India has purchased another round of urea and there a debate from where it will be executed - China or the Middle East. It matters a lot to Australian pricing, because if China are not there to export, local prices will trend higher.
Despite the geo-political uncertainty, energy prices have remained relatively calm. This could all change in a matter of hours.
The fertiliser market feels delicately balanced at the moment, so any supply issues could see some fire works.