Global urea prices exploded $70-80 per ton higher this week, on the back of rumors that China was no longer going to supply the export market. Chinese-made urea made up most of the volume committed to the last Indian tender and now there is talk that this volume will not be available.
On top of this, overall demand has increased with talk of a second Indian tender and increased volumes trading to Brazil and Australia.
Locally supply remains constrained with demand outstripping supply. Prices are likely to increase during October and November, if more cargo is not committed to Tasmania.