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25 July, Grain Comment

By Paul Willows

We knew global grain markets were going to be volatile during July and August- and they are delivering. At end of last week, markets were slammed lower with growing concerns of a global recession, improved rainfall outlook for the US corn belt and a deal signed between Russia/Ukraine/Turkey allowing Ukraine grain to freely flow from its ports. At the time of writing- the markets had completely changed course with the grain deal being derailed with 24 hours of signing and hot weather returning to the US. Over this volatile period- local grain prices have remained largely unchanged. We are starting to hear reports that all is not well with the crop on the mainland- from too dry in pasts of South Australia and Northern Victoria, while too wet in Northern NSW. It is quite normal to get mixed reviews this time of year. What really matters is timely rainfall in September to November. All the prediction suggest we should have a good spring- but this something all grain merchants will be closely monitoring.


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