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21 June 22, Grain Comment

The US weather market is here.

Grain merchants become meteorologists for the months June and July - trying to forecast the temperature and rainfall patterns of key growing regions in the Northern Hemisphere.

Global grains markets were marginally weaker over the week despite the macro-economic meltdown. The weather in the US has deteriorated over the past week and forecasts are now suggesting the corn crop is likely to pollinate in very hot and dry conditions. Weather forecasts are fickle- but the point is- the world cannot afford US corn production to be below average.

Prices are going to be super volatile for the next month. This volatility on US grain futures will likely filter down to Tasmanian prices- although not one for one.

Seasonally, prices tend peak in June and July- but given how low global grain stocks are present- we probably need to get through August before we can have any confidence about grain prices going lower.


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